Good oulook for our area today!!!

All the models suggest a little west of here but still for it being this early in the year this is very exciting to be this close to severe weather. We have a pretty good possiblity of seeing some strong thunderstorms over NW IA this late afternoon/evening. This trough is slamming moisture from the gulf right into us and creating instability with the cold trough being brought in from the rockies. We will likely have tornado watches this afternoon after 4:00 pm.

Now with all this said for NW IA I would really love to be able to take off to the Withita/OKC area today but that's just not possible since I got really ill a couple weeks ago I have to concerve my PTO otherwise it just might be a little hard to pay some bills with this great economy.

Check this probibility outlook out, it's pretty sweet. I'm sure my buddy Brent is really itching to take a trip to his home state today to get some great photo op's. All in all though we have a pretty great chance of having some low topped supercells coming our way so it could really be alot of fun around here too. Plus it's cheaper to do it that way.

Moday through Tuesday next week !!!

The forecast models are looking rather promising to have some thunderstorms from Monday -Tuesday next week. There is going to be a strong upper level trough that is pulling into the central planes during the day Monday along with a deep surface low pressure system in the same region.

This could really spark up some great weather events throughout late afternoon Monday through Tuesday (Tuesday will be more toward our area). I will have more to come later.

Warm up, mild week !

Well as we approach this week we are looking for a pretty mild run of weather. We are getting pounded by a warm front that is keeping us around 20 degrees above normal today and tomorrow. Tomorrow night there will be a cold front rolling over but don't expect it to get to cold because Wednesday is still supposed to be up in the low 50's the coldest day this whole week is looking to be Thursday with the high at 49! All this mild weather this week could easily stir up some fun "chasable" weather by early next week. Hopefully the sheer, cape and overall instability will fall into place so I don't have to drive to terribly far to get a glimpse of some severe weather. It looks like a great week to get off our butts and get some outdoors stuff caught up. About the most exciting weather (I guess you could call it weather) event that we have to look forward to is a red flag warning. I'm a firefighter so I find that exciting! I will post later on this week with some predictions about early next week.

Artic Blast, Warm IL, Causing Instabiliy

Well as there is an artic blast blowing by just to our N NE it is helping fuel some instability in IL and MO. This afternoon looks like it could be an interesting day, I would say hail and high winds would be the mail concern but there could be just enough fuel to drive some tornados down. I notice TVN chaser Andrew Pritchard is in central IL as we speak getting read for a chase. I wish him the best of luck and hope he gets some footage to brag about! Below is a surface map that is showing the artic blast driving some cold dry air right into the warm front located right on top of IL, when these two meet it could spark some interesting sights.
As for the rest of the week in NW IA, it looks pretty calm. We are going to have a warm front push N and give us some more pleasent weather starting Thursday night into Friday. Until then this artic blast will cause us to be in the teens tomorrow