The models are still showing a good dryline in Cntrl/Wstrn TX. Like my previous post said the CAPE model run still has something to be desired but it's showing stronger than the last run. This is a good sign, the closer we get the more accurate the models will be and I like the 750J Kg jump in the CAPE. The Shear is showing a great 90degree cross over right on top of San Angelo, TX that is where most of the convection/lifting should occur! I will be sure to post more as the "first chase" storms unfold themselves.
If you can tell I'm getting excited. This is where I would love to be again!!!
Be sure to checkout my YouTube Channel often this spring, as I will be chasing a lot with Extreme Weather Chase Team and posting videos often!!!
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
FCST for March 2, 2010
There looks to be a GFS run that is consistantly showing a Dryline & Trough in W TX on March 2! I've been watching this model the past couple days and it hasn't changed too much either which normally means that this could really be a good day for the "1st chase" of the season for may chasers!
All the surface plots reflect a strong trough with eastern, Gulf winds rotating and blasting south through much of TX but on the other side of the trough there will Pacific moisture being blown in and creating instability. As of right now the projected CAPE and soundings aren't really reflecting any potential but it's still really early for those models to catch up to what the surface plot is showing. They usually don't show too much until around a week in advance. As soon as the sounding looks to be more accurate I'll be able to tell what severe potential this setup will have. I do however think it could be a very good setup with all the moisture from the Gulf and Pacific flowing in along with the boundry of Artic dry air up to the north and the cool mountain air blowing east. It's over all a good setup on the models.
Here are the models with the highlighted area!!! It's going to happen and it will be epic!!!
All the surface plots reflect a strong trough with eastern, Gulf winds rotating and blasting south through much of TX but on the other side of the trough there will Pacific moisture being blown in and creating instability. As of right now the projected CAPE and soundings aren't really reflecting any potential but it's still really early for those models to catch up to what the surface plot is showing. They usually don't show too much until around a week in advance. As soon as the sounding looks to be more accurate I'll be able to tell what severe potential this setup will have. I do however think it could be a very good setup with all the moisture from the Gulf and Pacific flowing in along with the boundry of Artic dry air up to the north and the cool mountain air blowing east. It's over all a good setup on the models.
Here are the models with the highlighted area!!! It's going to happen and it will be epic!!!
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