Textbook

Check out these little towers just starting to develop, this is textbook. This is right over Omaha and Mo Valley

The coolest thing is to watch the wind shear from the N hit the shear from the S and start to form the towers.

Faster than Expected

It looks like the cold front moving in from the NW moved faster than expected last night pretty much knocking any chances of severe storms today and tonight out of the question for our little region. 100 miles south of us and there will be a better chance of running into something. Overall it's dissapointing but only to be expected this early in the year for this far North.

Finally Something Worth While to Write About!!!

Late Friday afternoon through Friday Night we are looking for some good activity in western IA. To start out with look at SPC's probability outlook, we are just on the line of 30% for tornadic activity in NW IA where as 100 miles south is right in the middle of it.

Next look at the wind shear, at the surface we have great southerly winds blowing in moisture from the gulf intesecting with colder Canadian air running from Duluth MN all the way down to Dodge City KS area. This alone is cause for some pretty good instability.

Then you look at the mid level winds they are blowing at 35Kts W SW bringing in Pacific moisture to add to the Cape. The combination of N cold air S humid air and W SW partially humid air will really light up the sky.

The next thing we should look at is the mixing ratio which is once again centered right over our area and the Cape which is just over extending our area.

This setup looks to be almost a fool proof setup for our area. We should be looking at a great possibility of some supercells actually getting up into this region and with all this instability there will be a high chance of tornadic supercells. Another thing is if these fire during the daylight there will be a pretty good chance to see some great RFD cuts along wall clouds because of the closeness of all the cool air. Tomorrow should be a pretty exciting day that really fires up some activity that we have been long waiting for.

Blah!!!

April is looking to be pretty lame around here with anything that does come our way won't be worth chasing until at least the end of April if we are lucky. The moisture barrier has froze in KS and isn't allowing us sufficient moisture or humidity to get us fired up into spring weather patterns, hence the cold and dry air that has granted us with its presence. I have a feeling the blog will be pretty boring until then so I probably won't post until something changes. We are however supposed to get some Thunderstorms at the end of this week but nothing that will be worth waisting gas on. Here is what I am talking about when I say the moisture barrier has froze in KS. So until we blog again, happy mild weather:(

Worse than expected

Well the NWS took it a step beyond what I thought would happen but UGH... if they are right... I'm going to be pissed!!!

Wet Wet Wet

Well as I said in the previous post we had a chance for rain and snow for this weekend but it is definitely looking like we are going to be getting more than we bargained for.

We are getting slammed with moisture from the SW and then just to our east cold dry air is going to be taking over and creating enough instability to drop in temp and moisturize (for lack of a better word) the cool air, thus creating a ton of cold type precipitation.

This is showing the mixing ratio of mid level winds at 11:00 am Sat. Right over top of our area.

This is showing the precipitible water at 11:00 am Sat. once again right over top of us.

This is showing mid level wind shear blowing the moisture in from the SW at 11:00 am Sat.

Finally this is what is going to suck, here is the precip. outlook for us, pretty much 8-10 in. of the wet wet heavy snow.

Irritated, lame, boring, and wet

Doesn't really make sense does it? Oh well doesn't really matter.

This past week really sucked around here for weather, cold & wet days then the next day it's in the 50's then next thing it's cold and wet again. UGH it's spring already give me something to chase!!!

The outlook for the next week is where the irritated comes into play, nothing besides a chance of snow and rain again for this weekend.

I'm not near good enough at forcasting to say but maybe by the end of next week around the 11th we might, just might have something to look forward to.