Finally Something Worth While to Write About!!!

Late Friday afternoon through Friday Night we are looking for some good activity in western IA. To start out with look at SPC's probability outlook, we are just on the line of 30% for tornadic activity in NW IA where as 100 miles south is right in the middle of it.

Next look at the wind shear, at the surface we have great southerly winds blowing in moisture from the gulf intesecting with colder Canadian air running from Duluth MN all the way down to Dodge City KS area. This alone is cause for some pretty good instability.

Then you look at the mid level winds they are blowing at 35Kts W SW bringing in Pacific moisture to add to the Cape. The combination of N cold air S humid air and W SW partially humid air will really light up the sky.

The next thing we should look at is the mixing ratio which is once again centered right over our area and the Cape which is just over extending our area.

This setup looks to be almost a fool proof setup for our area. We should be looking at a great possibility of some supercells actually getting up into this region and with all this instability there will be a high chance of tornadic supercells. Another thing is if these fire during the daylight there will be a pretty good chance to see some great RFD cuts along wall clouds because of the closeness of all the cool air. Tomorrow should be a pretty exciting day that really fires up some activity that we have been long waiting for.