Over rated?

I'm still sticking to my guns 8-10" is what I'm calling for... I think this storm is over rated and who know's I can be wrong but hey if I'm right then what can I say but "I'm awesome" HAHA HAHA Just Kidding!!!

Christmas Week

OK, still pretty early to tell but geesh the NWS is really blowing this out of proportion I think. Here is the latest graphic that they have.

FCST Christmas Week 2009

First to start out there are going to be 2 systems moving in, one tonight through tomorrow morning and Wednesday through Christmas day depending on frontal speeds this system could linger until Saturday AM but it's a ways off so a little too early to tell right now.

System#1

This one is looking like it's going to dump a max of 3" on the area, NW is going to be hit the hardest with the max of 3" and we are looking for 1" tops in RV. Overall a rather fast moving system but it's got to get out of the way for the new system coming in on Wednesday. Here is the lifted moisture that is possible precip.

System#2

I'm planning on elaborating more on this either tomorrow afternoon or Wed. AM, it depends how my schedule works out. For the most part over the plains we are looking for heavy precip, 8-12" possible with strong winds to bring it to a blizzard condition.

Down south there is a slight chance of SVR WX Eastern TX, Western AK & LA. here is a graphic to show dew points & mixing winds. This doesn't have a huge CAPE rating but it looks as though this should be enough to have some super cellular storms along with a couple smaller tornado's that could be reported.

FCST Dec 14-19, 2009

Looks like next week is going to be very similar to last week but without the heavy moisture in the air like Tuesday when the blizzard struck. There is however a slight chance of snow Sunday night into Monday AM. This will be a 1/2" possible tops, there just isn't enough mixing of moist air coming in from the gulf, this is shown in detail with the pics below. What's happening is we have 120Kts high altitude wind blowing in from the Rocky's but what would cause a good storm is is we had 30-50Kt lowwinds coming in from the gulf. This would provide just enough lift to give us precipitable moisture. This is OK since it's winter it's not that much fun to scoop snow anyways. So I like being able to forecast easy ones like this.

I'm sure I will update closer to the end of next week as it looks like there maybe something to write about for Christmas Week! Pretty early to tell for sure right now.