Well here is the day we've wanted all along, the chances of the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) of jumping this day up to a Moderate Risk is there, they just need to do it!!!
This will be a short but easy forecast as I'm sure I'll have more to come later on.
There is an enhanced chance for severe t-storms in the hatched area w/ the yellow defining a higher probability!
There will be tons of moisture to play with in the atmosphere!
There will be very little to NO cap out there. (Cap is the overall wind shear aloft that kills off convection and doesn't allow storms to form)
Now with very little cap and 4000+ CAPE the convection should be off the charts, the way this usually plays out is there are a couple great supercells that form and a lot of other little satellites that spark up on radar but then they get pulled into the main cells thus creating major supercells.
I really can't wait for tomorrow, this could easily be another tornado outbreak day. I hope we get to top May 22nd but I have some doubts too. No matter what this is going to be a great day for chasing, many well noted national chasers are targeting the area from SW MN, E Central SD, and NW IA. I personally feel that I will be targeting the NW IA area since it's my backyard but I am still waiting on a couple model runs before that's set in stone. Be sure to click here for EXWX's live streams and pay attention to the skys so you remain safe!
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